En el momento actual existen suficientes condiciones objetivas para que el presidente Luis Abinader no gane la reelección el 19 de mayo de 2024.
Simultánemente el panorama nacional le ofrece a Abinader elementos subjetivos de sobra para derrotar a sus dos adversarios.
Hasta un miope ve las dificultades cotidianas de la masa popular para comprar alimentos, medicinas, útiles escolares, usar transporte, obtener un empleo y caminar con seguridad en las calles.
Hay, sin exagerar, un deterioro progresivo de la calidad de vida de las personas.
Esa pésima condición provoca reacciones episódicas de disgustos y rebeldías particulares de la gente que quisiera precios más equilibrados con los niveles de ingresos de los asalariados.
Por igual, cuando la gente es asaltada en las calles, la reacción es buscar el video y subirlo a las redes para denunciar la inoperancia de la Policía.
En síntesis: La gente supervive en condiciones precarias de existencia. Altos precios de alimentos importados, subsidiados por el Estado en detrimento de la producción nacional; desempleo, inseguridad, migración masiva ilegal de la población más joven.
El gobierno comprometió su palabra de que iba a satisfacer la demanda generalizada de combatir la corrupción que impulsó la Marcha Verde, pero solo persiguió a personeros del pasado gobierno peledeísta, a pesar de contar con un súper ministerio público ‘independiente’.
Los fiscales salieron raudos a perseguir a los corruptos cercanos al expresidente Danilo Medina, entregar videos de su arresto en allanamientos y luego ‘filtrar’ los interrogatorios a la prensa para lograr una condena mediática previa.
De lo que aun no se han enterado los fiscales anticorrupción es de lo que pasó en Inabie, en el Ministerio de la Juventud, en Pinta tu barrio, en la compra de jeringuillas en Salud Pública, en el ‘barrilito’ ilegal del Congreso, en los asesinatos policiales, como el del empresario Daniel Rodríguez en Gurabo, Santiago, durante un allanamiento madrugador.
Ahí, los investigadores guardan un silencio sepulcral y el mote de ‘independiente’ queda cubierto a nivel de las rodillas con el refajo que se ve caer.
Son las condiciones objetivas clásicas que pueden dar oportunidad a que un pueblo rechace una reelección y elija a un nuevo Presidente aunque no represente integralmente sus aspiraciones.
Elementos subjetivos
Como los procesos sociales son dialécticos, dinámicos, complejos y cambiantes, -no mecánicos ni aritméticos- no basta con que haya suficientes condiciones objetivas para convertir el antireeleccionismo en una fórmula de poder.
Para provocar la derrota de la reelección de un presidente –y más en países con tan pobre cultura democrática y tanto clientelismo-caudillismo como República Dominicana– las condiciones objetivas son solo el punto de partida ideal para crear los elementos subjetivos que la hagan naufragar.
Por malo que sea un gobierno o un Presidente, las condiciones objetivas por sí solas no lo arruinan en corto plazo. Los elementos subjetivos son imprescindibles para erosionar su poder.
Es como un árbol gigante que se ha secado, no tiene vida, pero aunque secas, sus raíces siguen enterradas profundamente en la tierra y no cae por sí solo. Hay que hacerlo caer por elementos subjetivos como un gran ventarrón o un fuego abrasador.
Los elementos subjetivos son esencialmente una conciencia colectiva de que un mal gobierno no puede reelegirse y se expresa fundamentalmente por una “intensificación considerable de la actividad de las masas” que ya no están dispuestas a aceptar su ruina social y económica sin la rebeldía social.
El espontaneísmo no tiene potencialidad para provocar una intensificación de la movilización popular. Hace falta un comando político, un pensamiento claro, una ética, una sagacidad, un encadenante histórico y una firmeza con arraigo en las masas para poder influir en el pueblo y movilizarlo por sus propios intereses.
Ese es el gran vacío en la coyuntura política actual dominicana.
Aquí no hay un líder ni un partido que sea expresión de la voluntad popular mayoritaria de la gente golpeada por la inflación, la inseguridad ciudadana, los pésimos servicios públicos, el desempleo y la degradada calidad de vida que provoca la migración y la delincuencia.
El motor que puede poner en plena tensión la rebeldía particular convertida en acción de masas, es un líder popular, un tribuno confiable o un partido fogueado en la defensa histórica de las clases oprimidas.
Solo ese individuo o ese partido, si tienen la capacidad y valor para transformar el disgusto social en conciencia y organización política, pueden impulsar un verdadero cambio y convertir el voto de las grandes mayorías, en poder electoral.
Hoy no existe ninguno de los dos y tampoco se advierte voluntad para crearlos antes del próximo mes de octubre en el que deben escogerse los candidatos presidenciales.
No caigan en engaños
No me engaño ni recomiendo a nadie que haga cálculos tontos diciendo que los peledeístas y leonelistas jamás votarían por la reelección.
En las elecciones de 2020 hubo al menos 400,000 peledeístas –la mayoría empleados públicos que luego fueron cancelados por Abinader– que votaron por el ‘cambio’ que prometió el Partido Revolucionario Moderno (PRM).
En 2020 a Leonel Fernández se les perdieron al menos 652,000 votos de los 885,000 que había obtenido en las primarias del PLD el 6 de octubre de 2019. Como candidato presidencial de la Fuerza del Pueblo solo sacó 233,000 sufragios.
Hay una explicación nada despreciable de esa debacle electoral leonlista: Leonel pactó una alianza con Abinader-PRM para llevar candidaturas legislativas comunes en 23 provincias.
Aunque Abinader-PRM lo ‘soltaron en banda’ a última hora, pusieron en acción la “Operación remate”, publicando un carrusel de encuestas que situaban al pupilo de Mike Pompeo por encima del 54% de las ‘preferencias electorales a una semana de las elecciones, y de forma inexplicable, Leonel declaró que no haría alianza con el PLD en una segunda vuelta.
¿Anjá? Abinader era catapultado con ‘encuestas’ que le daban la mayoría en primera vuelta y Leonel aseguraba que si había segunda vuelta, no apoyaría al PLD.
En esas circunstancias, ¿qué podían hacer los peledeístas y leonelistas empleados públicos?
¡Virarse rápidamente, comunicárselo a sus caciques locales y a sus familiares y votar por Abinader-PRM!
Eso hicieron 400,000 peledeístas-danilistas y más de 600,000 leonelistas. Ellos, voluntariamente, le dieron el triunfo a Abinader.
Aunque apoyaron a Abinader, luego los botaron de sus empleos públicos.
Repetido está: Abinader no ha satisfecho las aspiraciones de una vida mejor para la gente que votó por él en el PLD (400,000) en la Fuerza del Pueblo (650,000) y ni siquiera en su propio PRM, cerca de un millón.
Pero como la oposición se reduce a mensajes en redes sociales y ruedas de prensa para salir en televisión, las grandes masas no expresan colectivamente su rebeldía y no hay –al día de hoy- un líder o un partido capaz de convertir las condiciones objetivas en acción política electoral para derrotar la reelección.
Por eso el gobierno-PRM compra con tanta facilidad a los alcaldes y diputados del PLD y la Fuerza del Pueblo, y los seguirá comprando porque la dignidad es un artículo de lujo excepcional en la política dominicana.
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